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Morning Commentary: Tuesday 31st August 2010
Major Developments:
CAD Current Account -11.0B (forecast -10.2B)
CAD RMPI m/m 1.8% (forecast 0.3%)
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
USD Personal spending m/m 0.4% (forecast 0.4%)
Upcoming Events today:
NZD Building Consents m/m 1045
AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks1100
AUD Building Approvals m/m 1330
AUD Retail Sales m/m 1330
AUD Current Account 1330
Market Overview: Market review:
  Overnight Ranges midrates
NZD/USD 0.7066 - 0.7111 0.7075
AUD/USD 0.8918 - 0.8995 0.8919
NZD/JPY 59.73 - 60.51 59.86
AUD/NZD 1.2598 - 1.2663 1.2606
GBP/NZD 2.1782 - 2.1936 2.1851
EUR/USD 1.2661 - 1.2738 1.2663
USD/JPY 84.53 - 85.11 84.60
GBP/USD 1.5457 - 1.5574 1.5460
USD/CHF 1.0239 - 1.0297 1.0262
USD/CAD 1.0476 - 1.0604 1.0600
EUR/JPY 107.02 - 108.39 107.13
EUR/GBP 0.8163 - 0.8206 0.8191
EUR/CHF 1.2984 - 1.3107 1.2994

NZD: Fridays rally in equities was short lived as the Dow shed 134 points overnight, taking risk sensitive currencies with it on the back of slower than forecast growth in personal incomes bolstered concerns the economic rebound may slow even further. The kiwi is currently trading at its overnight low at 0.7065 with its next major support level at 0.7020. Traders be wary of a SCF announcement due out at 9.30 am this morning.

AUD: The Aussie fared a lot worse than Kiwi overnight as more weak data out has pared most of the gains made Friday night losing 80 points since the London session, we are currently sitting at 0.8920, also down 50 points against the kiwi at time of print. We have a range of data coming out across the ditch today most notably Building Approvals and Retail sales at 1:30 this afternoon.

EUR: The EUR/USD was battered on the day as a weak attempt from the BoJ to stem Yen strength saw stronger conviction in support for safe haven currencies. The dollar, franc and yen would rebound against the single currency after initial weakness to start the week. The EUR/USD was battered on the day as a weak attempt from the BoJ to stem Yen strength saw stronger conviction in support for safe haven currencies. The dollar, franc and yen would rebound against the single currency after initial weakness to start the week. A weak U.S. personal income report helped weigh on equity markets as risk aversion remained firm. Although the EUR/USD has seen its relationship with risk weaken from 47% to 43% in the past week, it still holds considerable influence over the pair. However, yield expectations have started to become the main driver of direction and will be in focus this week with the upcoming ECB rate decision. A drop in interest rate expectations at the beginning of August, as the outlook for the global economy dimmed, was a significant weighing factor for the single currency. Therefore, a hawkish central bank could lead to renewed support and a reversal of the prevailing bearish trend.

GBP: The EUR/USD was battered on the day as a weak attempt from the BoJ to stem Yen strength saw stronger conviction in support for safe haven currencies. The dollar, franc and yen would rebound against the single currency after initial weakness to start the week. The EUR/USD was battered on the day as a weak attempt from the BoJ to stem Yen strength saw stronger conviction in support for safe haven currencies. The dollar, franc and yen would rebound against the single currency after initial weakness to start the week. A weak U.S. personal income report helped weigh on equity markets as risk aversion remained firm. Although the EUR/USD has seen its relationship with risk weaken from 47% to 43% in the past week, it still holds considerable influence over the pair. However, yield expectations have started to become the main driver of direction and will be in focus this week with the upcoming ECB rate decision. A drop in interest rate expectations at the beginning of August, as the outlook for the global economy dimmed, was a significant weighing factor for the single currency. Therefore, a hawkish central bank could lead to renewed support and a reversal of the prevailing bearish trend.

 
Overnight Ranges:
  Level Change
Dow 10009.73 -140.92
Oil 74.14 -1.03
Gold 1236.58 +1.13
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