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Morning Commentary: Thursday 2nd September 2010
Major Developments:
CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (forecast 0.9%)
AUD GDP q/q 1.2% (forecast 0.9%)
GBP Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (forecast 57.1)
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -10k (forecast 20k)
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.3 (forecast 53.2)
Upcoming Events today:
AUD Trade Balance 1330
CHF GDP 1745
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 1800
CHF Retail Sales y/y 1915
EUR Minimum Bid Rate 2345
EUR ECB Press Conference 0030
USD Unemployment Claims 0030
USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 0100
USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0200
Market Overview: Market review:
  Overnight Ranges midrates
NZD/USD 0.7027 - 0.7129 0.7125
AUD/USD 0.9002 - 0.9114 0.9113
NZD/JPY 59.00 - 60.31 60.12
AUD/NZD 1.2756 - 1.2831 1.2790
GBP/NZD 2.1669 - 2.1914 2.1695
EUR/USD 1.2725 - 1.2851 1.2812
USD/JPY 83.82 - 84.67 84.39
GBP/USD 1.5341 - 1.5487 1.5457
USD/CHF 1.0067 - 1.0182 1.0152
USD/CAD 1.0487 - 1.0630 1.0504
EUR/JPY 106.93 - 108.58 108.11
EUR/GBP 0.8262 - 0.8325 0.8289
EUR/CHF 1.2919 - 1.3040 1.3007

NZD: The kiwi kept pushing north overnight to reach a high of 0.7125 as US and Chinese manufacturing data accelerated, spurring demand for riskier assets. The Dow was also up a whopping 254.90 points or 2.55% in line with other offshore equity markets with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up as much as 2.9 percent. This was the biggest intraday jump since July 7 as investor sentiment strengthens around the globe overnight. No local data due out today, the kiwi currently still sitting around its highs at 0.7120.

AUD: The Aussie advanced to a three-week high against the greenback as Australia’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in three years. GPD came out at 1.2% beating the consensus forecast of 0.9%. With favourable US data out overnight the Aussie gained over 2% reaching its highest level since August 12th. The Aussie is currently trading a few points of its highs at 0.9109 at time of print. Trade balance figures due out at 1:30 NZT should give investors a good look at where the Aussie is headed from here, holding recent gains the key.

EUR: Euro kicked off the overnight session around the 1.27 figure and rallied through to 1.28 in a hurry. Investors happy to take on risk as the Dow closed up 2.5%. This extends the rebound from 1.2580 low as it reached a high of 1.2854. Upside here could be limited by 1.29 resistance. German Retail Sales figure published worse than expected at -0.3% (0.6% expected) and showed no impact on current trend. Minimum Bid Rate comes out tonight NZT, expect this to move the Euro.

GBP: A new month for investors brings comfort as signs of life in China’s economy are not as bad is predicted. This news bought riskier currencies to the table as punters bought cable from its low of 1.5336 to post a sizeable gain overnight. Up over 100 points the high was 1.5489 before dropping back a tad to 1.5451 on weaker than expected manufacturing data. Cable has leveled this morning to currently trade around the 1.55 area. House Price Index publishes tonight NZT.

 
Overnight Ranges:
  Level Change
Dow 10269.47 +254.75
Oil 73.93 +2.01
Gold 1244.25 -2.49
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