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Morning Commentary: Monday 30th August 2010
Major Developments:
USD Prelim GDP q/q 1.6% (forecast 1.5%)
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.9% (forecast 1.8%)
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.9 (forecast 69.8)
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7% (prev 2.8%)
Upcoming Events today:
NZD Trade Balance 1045
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 1330
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 1500
CAD Current Account 0030
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0030
USD Personal Spending m/m 1230
USDFOMC Member Bullard Speaks 0530
Market Overview: Market review:
  Weekend Ranges midrates
NZD/USD 0.7033 - 0.7137 0.7111
AUD/USD 0.8863 - 0.8999 0.8993
NZD/JPY 59.45 - 60.90 60.62
AUD/NZD 1.2579 - 1.2650 1.2647
GBP/NZD 2.1747 - 2.2051 2.1851
EUR/USD 1.2688 - 1.2774 1.2763
USD/JPY 84.46 - 85.47 85.25
GBP/USD 1.5448 - 1.5539 1.5538
USD/CHF 1.0224 - 1.0304 1.0280
USD/CAD 1.0508 - 1.0648 1.0510
EUR/JPY 107.27 - 108.91 108.81
EUR/GBP 0.8188 - 0.8228 0.8214
EUR/CHF 1.2999 - 1.3124 1.3121

NZD: The Kiwi rallied over the weekend to a high of 0.7140 breaking the downward trend channel and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The kiwi benefited the most behind the Swedish krona from Bernanke’s speech and a better than forecast GDP figure. The options he laid out were keeping rates at record lows and cutting to 0% the interest rate fed pays for banks to keep money parked at the Fed. We have trade balance and the NBNZ Business Confidence figures out today.

AUD: The Australian dollar made a critical rally through the end of the week to offset its bearish trend reaching a high of 0.8989 as data released on Saturday morning helped alleviate some of the concerns about the US economy. The Aussie currency now has a dense economic docket to look forward to this week. A broad range of top tier indicators will ultimately be overlooked as the focus turns to the second quarter GPD reading on Wednesday afternoon.

EUR: The euro had an uneven performance last week, however, the outcome that really mattered for the currency was the progress made against the US dollar – its primary counterpart. In fact, EURUSD climbed through the last three days of the week as the risk aversion drive steadied and the greenback saw its appeal as a safe haven diminish. Though the pair did advance, it covered relatively little ground. When we extract the dollar from this equation (which is difficult to do given its influence over global sentiment, activity and liquidity), what are we left with? Europe’s troubles remain and scheduled event risk is actually set to pick up over the coming week. Stability to this point is merely a natural consequence of the market’s preoccupation with other exogenous factors. These distractions may not last going forward; and they may actually weigh the euro going forward. At the time of writing EUR/USD is at 1.2760.

GBP: The British pound slipped against most of the majors on the week but ended on a strong note as a return of risk appetite helped sterling erase earlier losses. Comments from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke that the central bank will do whatever it takes to promote growth in the world’s largest economy and a not as weak as expected revision to US 2Q GDP helped fuel risk appetite. An upward revision in the U.K. GDP reading provided a domestic argument for bullish sentiment. The news built upon the strong retail figures in August from the Confederation of British Industry which helped bring an end to previous decline. Weak home loan data raised a red flag that credit conditions remain too tight for the BoE to consider tightening despite inflation above their 3.0% threshold. GBP / USD currently at 1.5535.

 
Overnight Ranges:
  Level Change
Dow 10150.65 +164.84
Oil 75.17 +2.21
Gold 1237.76 +1.84
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